Saturday, October 2, 2010

Population Growth

Population growth can be defined in terms of birth rate, death, doubling time, migration, and fertility rate.

The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children that each woman has over her lifetime. Calculating this helps show the potential for population change in a country.

TFR > 2.0 = population increase
TFR < 2.0 = population decrease
TFR = 2.0 = stable population

Factors that impact our environment apart from population size, is the amount and distribution of wealth as well as the resource desire and need.

Population Growth and Food Shortages

There are two opposing theories on this subject: one by Thomas Malthus, and the other by Ester Boserup. Malthus states that the population is increasing geometrically while the food supply increases aritmethically. This means that the population will surpass the amount of food available, causing excess individuals to die off.
Boserup on the other hand states that while the population keeps growing it will develop the technology needed to meed the food demand. While Malthus is too pessimistic, Boserup is too optimistic. I think we need to find a middle ground. Also, population keeps growing and each country's demands are different. Will the population grow so much that it will cause a dramatic dieback? Have we surpassed our carrying capacity?

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